ETAS Spatio-temporal Model and Seismic Activity Analysis

Mosi Zhang

doi:10.54691/1pz5de58

Authors

Mosi Zhang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54691/1pz5de58

Keywords:

Empirical statistical model; Seismic activity simulation; Earthquake calm; Coseismic stress triggering.

Abstract

Conventional Coulomb transfer only considers the triggering effect of moderate and strong earthquakes, ignoring that every earthquake has the ability of self-triggering. Statistical model, epidemic aftershock sequence model (ETAS), represents the normal seismic activity in a region. The quietness and activity of seismic activity can be detected by the systematic deviation between seismic activity and prediction rate, which can be regarded as the trigger effect of previous events and has a strong correlation with the coseismic trigger of Coulomb fracture stress change caused by strong earthquake transfer. The simulation results of Wenchuan-Lushan-Jiuzhaigou earthquake sequence show that the earthquake is not instantaneous, but triggered by the accumulation of seismic activity caused by the weak value of Coulomb change, which is consistent with the fracture theory of concave-convex body.

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